Modern Meta: May 19-21, 2023

Friday Decklists

Saturday Decklists

Sunday Decklists

Top of the Metagame

Winners of the Week

Murktide (Friday)

Zoo (Saturday)

Scam (Sunday)

Top Ten Archetypes Across Top 32s of All 3 Challenges (Ties Weighted by Top 8 Conversion)

1. Murktide - 12.50%

2. Creativity - 10.42%

3. Tron - 8.33%

4. Elementals - 7.29%

5. Scam/Rhinos - 6.25%

6. Scales - 5.21%

7. Burn/Yawgmoth - 5.21%

8. Coffers - 4.17%

9. Grinding Breach - 4.17%

10. Living End/Hammer - 3.13%

Best of the Best: Top 5 Decks Representing the Highest Percentages Across All 3 Top 8s (Ties Weighted by Overall Metashare)

1. Murktide - 20.83%

2. Tron - 12.50%

3. Elementals - 8.33%

4. Scales - 8.33%

5. Coffers - 8.33%

Well, hello there Murktide! After a somewhat muted performance in last week’s Challenges and weeks of questions surrounding the deck’s tier 1 status, a cabal of Murktide pilots banded together to commandingly put the doubters to rest. Murktide was the most represented deck this week and the deck with by far the best top 8 conversion rate, with the deck making up a dominant 20.83% of the top 8 field. It’s clear that as long as experienced pilots pick the deck back up, Murktide can never be counted out as a premium deck in Modern. Fluctuations in its success come largely down to variances in pilot skill as opposed to any meaningful meta shifts, at least at the time of this writing.

Elsewhere in the meta, we saw some considerable shifts. Creativity held steady in its meta-game share but it had a tough week converting top 8s, with only one Creativity pilot managing to snag a playoff finish. That’s not surprising given two of its worst enemies, Tron and Burn, had big upswings in the meta this week with Tron in particular going from a quiet contender to a major presence across all 3 top 32s with the second best top 8 conversion rate of the week (more on that below). With Creativity getting held back by these two bad matchups, its best match-up Elementals had a chance to shine, soaring into the top echelons of the meta on the back of Nissa, Resurgent Animist as its new powerful toy. Scales held strong from its impressive performance last week, while Mono B Coffers and Grinding Breach quietly had very strong showings as well. Breach was a welcome surprise after I noted Underworld Breach’s recent disappearance from the meta in last week’s newsletter, and it was especially cool to see all 4 Breach Pilots back on the Grinding Station version of the deck despite its tricky nature on MTGO. Goryo’s Kitchen, which I also talked about in depth last week, continued to quietly impress as well with another top 8.

Does the MOCS Tell Us Anything about Modern Right Now? Kinda!

I would be remiss not to talk at least a little bit about this weekend’s Magic Online Champions Showcase in which the 8 best MTGO players from this past season duked it out for cash and invites to the Magic World Championship. The Constructed format of choice was Modern this time around, and as with all MOCS playoff events we got treated to a wacky little meta.

You can check out the decklists here, and you’ll probably be scratching your head at many of the choices here. Two Infect decks? Mill? E-Tron? Winner Marco Vassallo was on Goryo’s Reanimator?! These are not decks that we define as sitting at the top of the metagame, and you probably won’t find these decks in the playoffs of the Modern PT in Barcelona. However, they do give some pointers as to how top players are thinking about the Modern landscape as it currently sits.

MOCS events are so small that participants generally pick decks based on what they think the other 7 players will be playing, which leads to spiraling mind games that end up in decklist spreads like this. If you approach the decklists with the same mindset, you start to see why these decks were chosen. Infect is a deck hoping to race against the two safest choices for the event, Creativity and Rhinos. Mill hopes for a similarly good matchup against those decks by disrupting their draws and exiling their combo pieces out of the library. Reanimator is hoping to exploit Creativity’s poor ability to deal with graveyard decks and weakness to scam openings. E-Tron is hoping to lock popular decks like Murktide and Cascade archetypes out of the game and then beat face. Ultimately most of these rogue decks were unable to keep up with the power of Creativity, wisely chosen by runner-up Sean Goddard and Tom White, though Vassallo’s gamble against Creativity ultimately paid off as he won the Showcase in the matchup he was clearly hoping to face.

Ultimately these decks simultaneously say a lot and very little about Modern right now. Largely these aren’t decklists you’ll see most pro players registering in larger events, though they do point to a combo-favored meta that people are trying to combat with aggressive and disruptive strategies. If you’re not planning on playing those top decks (primarily Creativity and Rhinos) anytime soon, maybe make your deck choices along the same lines these pros have here.

Looks Like Tron’s Back on the Menu

Tron has been quietly hanging out in the Challenge top 32s for the past few weeks before exploding into a very impressive showing this weekend. What’s the deal with the return of this equally beloved and feared archetype? You can chalk it up to a combination of Tron players finally accepting their deck is still playable and also a new willingness to innovate on a deck that has been tied to a stock list for years now.

Tron players across the globe went into collective mourning with the release of Modern Horizons 2 almost two years ago, as (gasp!) their dreaded enemy Counterspell was printed into the format. With the most popular deck in the format rocking this true blue spell and Blood Moons for days (not to mention another top archetype that rips apart your oh so Tron mulls to 5 before also Mooning you), Tron was declared too far gone to be playable. Fast forward to recent months, where players are starting to realize the deck still has its place in this meta.

A lot of Tron’s recent success can be chalked up to its incredible Creativity match-up. With no discard, no unconditional counters, and no Blood Moons to speak of, the deck is largely helpless against a Tron nut draw unless they are lucky enough to have Boseiju in hand, a card which they are largely cutting at the moment. Karnboards are well-equipped against the deck as well, with hate pieces from The Stone Brain to Engineered Explosives, meaning they bully the deck pretty effortlessly.

You can also chalk up the recent uptick in Urza lands to players of the archetype finally showing some willingness to tweak their decklists. Karn Liberated, a 7-mana card that kind of does nothing in this metagame, is slowly getting shaved away in favor of cards that actually impact your opponent’s gameplan. Some of these are relatively new cards such as Cityscape Leveler, a card that finally dramatically improves Tron’s Murktide matchup as its cast trigger is uncounterable and the Unearth effect brings it back for round 2 if it gets countered or removed. Some of them are old favorites that shine in this meta such as Golos, Tireless Pilgrim and Sundering Titan, which go over the top of Creativity and Elemental decks by either accruing value quickly or destroying their greedy mana bases.

While all these factors have contributed to Tron’s recent resurgence, I think the key element is that Tron players have recognized there’s a hole in the meta where big mana has a role to play and just because Counterspell and Blood Moon exist doesn’t mean they should put down old faithful. I think Tron is here to stay, at least for the time being, and leaving your Tron sideboard cards at home is quickly going to turn out badly for you.

Coffers: Making Mono B Viable?

Similarly to Tron, Mono B Coffers is a deck that’s exploiting the big-mana shaped hole in the metagame to great effect, having a nice showing in the last batch of Challenges before landing itself in the top 5 of the playoff-converting decks this weekend. Ever since Cabal Coffers was printed into Modern, players have been itching to make this deck work efficiently and lists are looking increasingly viable as of late. Unlike Tron and other big mana decks like Amulet Titan, Coffers has the advantage of not folding to Blood Moon since it plays plenty of Swamps and it has a myriad of ways to deal with creatures through Fatal Push, Bloodchief’s Thirst, March of Wretched Sorrow, Damnation, and Invoke Despair. That’s a lot of removal! It also has the same Karnboard advantages as Tron, rocking the same hate pieces as well as powerhouse artifacts like Cityscape Leveler. It also got a big upgrade with the printing of Demolition Field in Brothers’ War, meaning it now comfortably plays 8 Field of Ruins to disrupt multicolor opponents while maintaining a slick, clean mana base. While it can lose to itself with some clunky or slow draws, Coffers is a deck that’s difficult to directly hate on while hating on almost everything in the meta. Black has long been the weakest color in Modern so it’s refreshing to see a deck finally capitalize on its few but powerful strengths.

Yep, Nissa is the Real Deal

I went on at length in last week’s newsletter about how Nissa, Resurgent Animist was possibly going to single-handedly bring the Elementals deck back into contention and boy oh boy was I right. Elementals made such a commanding comeback this week that the metagame almost looks close to how it was when Yorion got banned, with Nissa showing up in almost every single list (even the 9th place Lutri Elementals list on Saturday, you have to laugh). Time will tell if Nissa is strong enough to keep Elementals viable in this Creativity-heavy meta, but for now the card and the archetype seem firmly here to stay. Elsewhere, Jund Scam, a new take on the Scam archetype that capitalizes on Nissa grabbing Fury and Grief and using her mana pips for undying effects, also appeared in the Sunday Challenge and will be a list to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Invasion of Tarkir: A New Finisher For Zoo?

Zoo has been quietly having some success lately with a largely stock list, though some have to been looking to shore up its ability to burn your opponent quickly with Tribal Flames by adding an additional big scorcher effect. The new battle from MOM Invasion of Tarkir burns your opponent for at least 3 damage if you have one or more Scion of Dracos in hand, and if you flip it into Defiant Thundermaw you are awarded with a solid body Dragon that also makes itself and your Scions ping any target for 2 whenever they attack. That’s a powerful effect that fits right into Zoo’s quick beatdown plan and the innovation found itself in Saturday’s winning list, though I’m skeptical you’re going to flip this battle very often. It’s certainly a fun card and time will tell if it increases in number or is just a fad amongst Zoo players as the meta evolves in the coming weeks.

That’s all for Modern this week. See you later in the week for Pioneer and in the meantime, happy trophy hunting!

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